Basque country: ETA declares truce

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On 17 September a unilateral, indefinite and unconditional truce was declared by ETA. This change in the course of the last armed conflict within the European Union radically alters the political situation in the Spanish State. The obvious precedent for the decision lay in the Irish peace process. Despite the significant differences between the two conflicts, the main players in the Basque political process were decisively influenced by the historic relationship between the Irish republican movement and Basque nationalism, the similarly restricted scope for progress through armed conflict, and the visible progress made in the Irish case through negotiation and agreement.

One contributing factor was that the various nationalist forces had come together at the initiative of Herri Batasuna (the party linked with ETA) in what was called the Ireland Forum. The participants included two parties in the Basque regional government, the PNV and EA, along with two radical movements, Zutik and Batzarre. Discussions in the Forum gave rise to heads of agreement contained in a Declaration signed at Estella on 12 September. The Declaration was also signed by the Izquierda Unida (United Left) and another 17 trade union and community organisations. The essence of the Declaration was a call for unconditional and inclusive dialogue and negotiation among all interested parties, dealing with all the issues underlying the conflict, and recognising the right of the Basque people to have the final say on any proposed agreement, with all concerned agreeing to respect the people's verdict.

Alongside the development of the Forum, an internal debate in ETA brought about the ceasefire, which in turn implied that it entrusted to the democratic forces the right and the responsibility to arrive at a solution for the issues outstanding in the conflict. The ceasefire announcement stated no time limit and no conditions, but said that progress towards an eventual agreement was necessary to underpin the ceasefire.

The importance of ETA's change of direction, along with the determination shown by the parties to the Estella Declaration, who enjoy the support of a majority of the Basque electorate, means that there is a real possibility that the ceasefire could become permanent. The potential obstacle lies in the attitude of the Spanish government and the Socialist Party, which have so far been reluctant to move from their fixed positions. A measured response, born out of experience, was the advice given by Sinn Fein's Gerry Adams: "I would urge all of those involved, and particularly the Spanish government, to learn the lessons of our experience. Don't create obstacles, don't delay." The weight of public opinion, and the expectations aroused by the recent turn of events, may oblige the Partido Popular (PP) and Socialist Party to be more flexible, particularly in view of the impact of the ceasefire on the impending elections on 25 October to the Basque parliament.

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