UK 
"Predictive
policing" comes to the UK
05.03.13
In January last year, The Independent
reported that "a pioneering technique to predict crime
before it happens could be imported from the United States to
this country." This prediction came true in December, when
Kent police began "a trial of a predictive policing model
from the USA that assesses several years' worth of crime data
and human behaviour to predict the areas in which offences are
likely to take place." [1]
According to the Gravesend
Reporter, by taking previous years' crime data and daily
updates of location, time and type of crime committed, the software
"creates prediction boxes of precise 500 sq ft zones which
are listed in priority order as to where crimes are most likely
to occur, which is then delivered to the smart phones, tablets
and PCs of police officers who use it to make decisions on where
to deploy." [2]
Analysis of other factors
is also taken into account. A police officer featured in a France
24 report notes that "it's the real demographics of
the area - the people, the places, what kind of buildings they
are. Taller buildings might mean there's more crime, or less
- it takes into account everything." [2]
According to the police
force undertaking the trial, "the scheme is a natural extension
of intelligence-led policing method pioneered by Kent Police."
[3]
Criticisms and costs
Reports examining the
use of the software in the US make a number of criticisms. An
article in the Massachusetts Institute of Technology's Technology
Review notes that "many crimes go unreported, which
could fool predictive policing software into thinking a neighbourhood
is safe." [4]
An article on the website
of Palantir Technologies, a data analysis firm, concludes that
"the development of predictive policing initiatives should
be informed by careful consideration of the attendant privacy
implications." [5]
The Kent trial began in
mid-December, but it appears local authorities were only told
about the scheme in mid-January, when Chief Inspector Philip
Painter made a presentation to the Gravesham Borough Council's
Crime and Disorder Scrutiny Committee. [6]
The trial will cost £125,000,
and councillors given presentations were apparently "sceptical
- one worried that it would leave rural areas without police
cover, another was concerned that it would mean job cuts,"
according to the Gravesend Reporter. However, the Council's
own report notes that "some Members felt that the software
was innovative and provided a tool for more effective use of
resources." [7]
The software used for
analysis is called PredPol, which is developed by a company of
the same name. It "provides targeted, real-time crime prediction
designed for and successfully tested by officer in the field."
[8]
"Based on models
for predicting aftershocks from earthquakes, PredPol's patent-pending
technology forecasts highest risk times and places for future
crimes," says the company's website.
From across the Atlantic
The UK arm of PredPol
was incorporated just four months before Kent Police began their
trial, and operates from an office on Dover Street in West London.
Documents filed with Companies House show that the director is
Caleb Baskin, whose address is registered in Santa Cruz, California;
the firm's secretary is listed as High Street Partners, which
is "the leader in international business software and services."
High Street Partners says
its "mission is to simplify the management and control of
existing international operations and any planned international
expansion, so our clients can capitalise on their overseas growth
opportunities." [9]
Police Oracle has referred to the Kent trial
as an "extraordinary initiative". The magazine reports
that implementation of the software in Kent has been led by Detective
Chief Superintendent Jon Sutton, after he was told about it by
Chief Constable Ian Learmonth. [10]
Minority Report?
As with many reports examining
the use of the software in the USA, the Gravesend Reporter
notes that it is "reminiscent of the Tom Cruise film, Minority
Report." In the film, individuals are targeted by the authorities
based not on what they have done, but on what it is predicted
they will do in the future. [11]
A US presentation based
on work done by the RAND Corporation is keen to note that the
system isn't "Minority Report, a crystal ball, ESP, a revolution
that will change everything, etc." [12]
"If you are doing
crime mapping you are already doing a basic form of predictive
policing," says the presentation. In January 2011, the UK
Home Office launched a crime mapping initiative which gave the
public "instant access to street-level crime maps and data."
[13]
The think-tank Policy
Exchange - who have previously produced work criticised for encouraging
"the curtailment of civil liberties and the narrowing of
political debate" [14] - hosted an event last January at
which police and academics from the US and the UK debated the
issue of predictive policing. A video of the event can be viewed
via their website. [15]
Slides from the event,
presented by Los Angeles police chief Charlie Beck, demonstrate
some of the effects of the introduction of predictive policing
into Los Angeles, which included significant decreases in crime
in the area covered. They are available from the Police Exchange
Website. [16]
However, the slides make
little mention of some of the issues that may be raised by predictive
policing, for example in relation to privacy or discrimination.
A blog on the website of security firm Sophos criticises the
lack of attention paid by the Los Angeles police to privacy and
anti-profiling training. [17]
A long-term plan?
At least one UK police
representative has been to the US to discuss predictive policing.
Jeremy Crump, Director of Strategy from the soon-to-be defunct
National Policing Improvement Agency, was present at "The
First Predictive Policing Symposium", held in Los Angeles
in November 2009.
He noted that "they
haven't used the term predictive policing in UK yet. The fundamentals
of predictive policing have been a driver for UK for some time
though." Crump highlighted three issues "that are critical
to success of predictive policing":
- Prediction isn't just
about places, it's about people
- Accountability is vital
- Resources and capabilities [18]
Another document indicates
that police interest in predictive policing software has been
of interest to the UK police for some time. A National Policing
Improvement Agency "action plan for improving knowledge
use in policing 2010-2012" said that the agency planned
to "develop and share tools and materials that facilitate
the service's use of knowledge," including "predictive
policing and data mining tools." [19]
It seems there may be
plans for predictive policing software to be implemented nationwide,
at least for a trial period. Police Oracle report that
Kent Police are apparently "ultimately anticipating rolling
out the initiative to the rest of the force for a year."
[20]
Sources
[1] Nigel Morris,
'Predictive
policing' could come to UK, The Independent, 26
January 2012; Advanced
crime prediction model trialled, Police Oracle,
17 December 2012
[2] Anna Dubuis, Mapping
crime before it happens, Gravesend Reporter, 24
January 2013
[3] Predictive
Policing: Tackling crime before it happens, France
24, 25 February 2013
[4] Kent Police, Ground-breaking
policing scheme piloted in Kent, 13 December 2013
[5] Brian Bergstein, The
problem with our data obsession, MIT Technology Review,
20 February 2013
[6] Predictive
policing: A window into future crimes or future privacy violations?,
Palantir, 24 September 2012
[7] Presentation
of the new 'PredPol' (Predictive Policing) software tool by Chief
Inspector Painter, Gravesham Borough Council Crime
and Disorder Scrutiny Committee (Item 23), 14 January 2013
[8] Ibid.
[9] PredPol website
[10] High Street Partners, Who
We Are
[11] Advanced
crime prediction model trialled, Police Oracle,
17 December 2012
[12] Ibid. at [2]
[13] John S. Hollywood, Susan C. Smith, Carter Price, BRian McInnis,
Walt Perry, Predictive
Policing: What it is, what it isn't, and where it can be useful,
Rand Corporation
[14] UK Home Office, Street-level
crime maps
[15] How
Policy Exchange and the Centre for Social Cohesion encourage
The Cold War on British Muslims, Spinwatch, 2
August 2011
[16] Pre-Crime
and Predictive Policing, Police Exchange, 25 January
2012
[17] Charlie Beck, The
Los Angeles predictive policing experiment
[18] Lisa Vaas, Predictive
policing brings burglary numbers down, but is privacy at risk?,
Naked Security, 3 July 2012
[19] The
First Predictive Policing Symposium, November 18-20 2009
[20] National Policing Improvement Agency, Policing
Knowledge: Sharing what we know, learning what we don't: an action
plan for improving knowledge in policing 2010-2012,
[21] Ibid. at [11]